{"id":6832,"date":"2026-02-27T11:16:35","date_gmt":"2026-02-27T04:16:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bkkterminal.com\/article\/thai-rice-faces-a-tough-challenge-strong-baht-and-surging-global-supply-are-putting-heavy-pressure-on-prices\/"},"modified":"2026-03-16T15:21:53","modified_gmt":"2026-03-16T08:21:53","slug":"thai-rice-export-2026-down-17-5-baht-impact","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bkkterminal.com\/en\/article\/thai-rice-export-2026-down-17-5-baht-impact\/","title":{"rendered":"Thai rice faces a tough challenge! Strong baht and surging global supply are putting heavy pressure on prices."},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>KEY POINTS<\/strong><\/p>\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>In January 2026, Thai rice exports decreased by 17.5% in volume and by 30.7% in value compared to the same period of the previous year.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The export target for 2026 is set at 7.03 million tons, the lowest in 5 years.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The strengthening Thai baht and increased global rice supply are putting pressure on Thailand&#8217;s competitiveness.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n<p><strong>Export target for 2026 is the lowest in 5 years.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n<p>The export target for 2026 is set at 7.03 million tons, a decrease of approximately 11% from the previous year, valued at 130 billion baht or approximately 4 billion US dollars.<\/p>\n\n<p>This represents the lowest level in five years, since 2021, with plans to reassess the situation in the second half of the year to consider adjusting the target if necessary.<\/p>\n\n<p><strong>The strengthening Thai baht is putting pressure on Thai rice prices.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n<p>One of the key factors is the appreciation of the Thai baht, which has resulted in Thai rice being more expensive than its competitors.<\/p>\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>A competitive exchange rate should be around 33\u201334 baht per US dollar.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Currently, the exchange rate is approximately 31 baht per US dollar.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n<p>Every 1 baht appreciation increases the price of Thai rice by approximately 12\u201315 dollars per ton.<\/p>\n\n<p>Compared to the same period in 2025, the price of Thai rice has increased by about $40 per ton.<\/p>\n\n<p><strong>Global supply increased, with India setting a new record for production.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n<p>Global rice production has increased significantly, with major producing countries able to produce up to 152 million tons per year, surpassing China&#8217;s previous record of 145\u2013146 million tons.<\/p>\n\n<p>This makes the country the most influential exporter in global market prices.<\/p>\n\n<p>Meanwhile, Vietnam and Pakistan also reported good yields in the latest season, resulting in global supply exceeding demand and intensifying price competition.<\/p>\n\n<p><strong>Domestic risk: Increased supply but difficulty competing.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n<p>Even though Thailand&#8217;s rice production volume is expected to increase in 2025, if exports cannot be accelerated, it could put pressure on domestic paddy rice prices.<\/p>\n\n<p>Key areas that require urgent adjustment include:<\/p>\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Developing high-yielding rice varieties.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Reducing production costs<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Enhancing competitiveness in the global market.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n<p><strong>The main factors affecting Thai rice exports.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n<p>1\ufe0f\u20e3 Volatility in the Thai baht exchange rate.<br\/> 2\ufe0f\u20e3 Increased global rice supply from both exporters and importers.<br\/> 3\ufe0f\u20e3 US tariff measures that impact global trade.<br\/> 4\ufe0f\u20e3 Many countries have food security policies that emphasize domestic production and reducing imports.<br\/> 5\ufe0f\u20e3 Risks from El Ni\u00f1o and drought that could impact crop yields.<\/p>\n\n<p><strong>Overview of the global rice market for the 2025\/26 marketing year.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n<p>Forecast data indicates that:<\/p>\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Global rice production stood at 541.28 million tons of milled rice, a decrease of 0.07% from the previous year.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Global rice trade (exports\u2013imports) is expected to reach 62.76 million tons of milled rice, an increase of 5.1%.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n<p>Many major exporting countries are expected to increase their exports, while many major importing countries are also likely to increase their imports.<\/p>\n\n<p>Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.thansettakij.com\/\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/www.thansettakij.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Thansettakij<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Thai rice exports in January 2026 totaled 530,287 tons, a decrease from the same period last year which saw exports of 643,144 tons, or a contraction of 17.5%.<\/p>\n<p> Export value stood at 9,707 million baht, a decrease of 30.7%, or 313 million US dollars, a decrease of 23.9%, reflecting price pressure from the global market and increased competition.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":6819,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_gspb_post_css":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[307,311,309,310,308],"class_list":["post-6832","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-1","tag-global-rice-market-2026","tag-thai-rice-export-2026","tag-thai-rice-exports-in-2026","tag-thai-rice-prices","tag-the-value-of-the-thai-baht-affects-rice"],"blocksy_meta":[],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bkkterminal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6832","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bkkterminal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bkkterminal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bkkterminal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bkkterminal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6832"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.bkkterminal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6832\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":6834,"href":"https:\/\/www.bkkterminal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6832\/revisions\/6834"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bkkterminal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/6819"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bkkterminal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6832"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bkkterminal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6832"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bkkterminal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6832"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}