US opens zero-tariff soybean deal. Who profits? Who has to pay more?

Because the important question is, “Who in the country will bear the costs of this deal?”

While many see market opening as an opportunity, hidden details reveal that Thai consumers and businesses may have to pay more than they anticipated.

The Soybean Situation in Thailand: The Numbers You Should Know

• In 2024, Thailand has approximately 66,121 rai of soybean planting area.
• Yield is approximately 16,000 tons or about 270 kilograms per rai.
• Total production value is approximately 400 million baht.
• The average cost for Thai farmers is 17 baht per kilogram.

Meanwhile, Thailand imports over 5 million tons of soybeans and soybean meal per year, which are used for two main purposes:

1. Extracting vegetable oil for consumption
2. Animal feed production in the livestock industry, different import structures and costs

• Raw soybeans: Import tax = 0%
• Soybean meal: Import tax = 2%

Thailand imports both types of products from two main countries: Brazil (80%) and the United States (20%).
But the interesting thing is that the “cost” of the two countries is very different:

Soybean production cost per rai (2025):

• USA: 6,864 baht/rai or 12.3 baht/kg.
• Brazil: 6,169 baht/rai or 10.7 baht/kg.

This means: Even with zero import tariffs from the US, the cost of American soybeans is still “higher” than Brazilian soybeans by an average of 1.6 baht/kg.

National Impact: Who Wins, Who Loses?

Thai farmers: Little impact, but that doesn’t mean we can be complacent.

Although production costs in Thailand are higher than in other countries, farmers can still sell at an average guaranteed price of 20 baht/kg.
Therefore, production may not decrease immediately, but in the long term, if import prices decrease and imports increase, farmers may have to adjust.

Oil palm growers: indirect benefits

Because imported soybean oil is still more expensive than domestic palm oil.
Therefore, it does not affect the market price much.

Entrepreneur: In a vulnerable position

Animal feed mills may incur additional costs if they import soybean meal from the US instead of Brazil, due to the higher cost of US soybeans, even with a 0% tariff.

Consumers: Burdened by the price of consumer goods

Soybean oil, tofu, soy milk — familiar everyday products may see their prices rise as the cost of imported raw materials from the US is higher than Brazil, and this price may eventually be reflected to consumers.

Conclusion: Are 0% tax deals really that good?

While this sounds like a golden opportunity for trade, when you look deeper into the details, a zero-tariff deal for US soybeans could actually result in increased costs, and the real beneficiaries could be “local Thais.”

• Farmers can still cope.
• Entrepreneurs may have to adjust prices or bear costs.
• Consumers are the group that must wait to see the price of products in the market.

Source: Thansettakij