A price war is shaking the global fertilizer market; urea prices have surged 13% and are at risk of rising by another 20%.

Recently, the price of urea fertilizer on the global market has increased by approximately 13% in a short period, reaching around US$550 per ton.

The market’s primary concern is the risk to the transportation of raw materials and energy through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important shipping lanes. Any disruption could impact the supply chains of numerous commodities.

The Vietnamese fertilizer market relies heavily on imports.

By 2025, Vietnam’s fertilizer market is expected to continue expanding, with the country importing approximately [amount] total fertilizers.

• 6.19 million tons
• Valued at more than US$2.19 billion.

China is the largest exporter of fertilizers to Vietnam, accounting for more than 48% of the total volume and value of imports.

However, as we enter 2026, Vietnam’s fertilizer industry begins to face pressure from geopolitical uncertainty, resulting in a projected slowdown in both the volume and value of fertilizer imports since the beginning of the year.

The Strait of Hormuz: A high-risk area for global supply chains.

The Strait of Hormuz is a vital global energy transportation route, accounting for approximately 31% of the world’s crude oil shipments by sea.

If this route is disrupted, it may cause…

• Energy supply has decreased.
• Raw material costs have increased.
• Commodity prices, including fertilizers, have risen.

Currently, approximately 1.2–1.5 million tons of urea fertilizer are transported monthly from producers in the Middle East to Asian markets.

Meanwhile, there is also transportation every year.

• 15–20 million tons of ammonia
• Nearly 20 million tons of sulfur.

Via that route.

The Middle East is the world’s center for nitrogen fertilizer production.

The Middle East is also one of the world’s largest producers of nitrogen fertilizers, particularly urea, with a total production of approximately 20 million tons per year.

The main producing countries in the region include:

• Iran
• Saudi Arabia
• Qatar
• United Arab Emirates
• Oman

Qatar has a urea production capacity of approximately 5–6 million tons per year and plans to expand production to around 12 million tons by the end of this decade.

Fertilizer prices in Vietnam are starting to rise in line with the global market.

Although Vietnam can utilize domestic natural gas as a raw material for urea production through major producers, this can reduce its reliance on imports to some extent in the short term.

However, because Vietnam’s fertilizer market is closely linked to global fertilizer prices, domestic prices remain influenced by global market trends.

Recently, the price of urea fertilizer in the Vietnamese market has increased by approximately 200–300 dong per kilogram.

The global fertilizer market outlook remains uncertain.

If tensions in the Middle East continue, many analysts estimate that global fertilizer prices could rise by another 10–20%, which could lead to higher agricultural production costs in many countries.

The fertilizer industry is therefore accelerating its planning for raw material management, inventory management, and maintaining domestic production stability to mitigate risks from global market volatility.

Source: Thansettakij