Cargo ship at a busy port.

The strengthening baht is putting pressure on competitive prices. Can Thai exports still cope?

The Thai baht's multi-year appreciation has become a major challenge for Thai exports in 2026. At the end of December, the baht stood at 31.05 baht per US dollar, appreciating by 9.31% year-over-year. This has resulted in an average decrease in exporters' revenue when converted to baht of approximately 3.2 baht per dollar, and makes price competitiveness more difficult.

Although Thailand’s overall export value grew well last year, reaching a record high of US$338.9 billion, a 12.58% increase, when calculated in Thai baht, it only grew by 5.20%, reflecting an average loss of approximately 7.38% in revenue due to exchange rate fluctuations.

The impact varies depending on the product group.
Industrial product groups that import raw materials for production and re-export are able to maintain their performance due to lower import costs, while agricultural products are clearly affected, with export value contracting by 10.76%.

  • Rice prices decreased by 34%.
  • Rubber production decreased by 5.6%.
  • Processed seafood decreased by 7.8%.

Main export markets
The US market, which accounts for about one-fifth of Thailand’s exports, still expanded by 29.8%, while the Chinese market grew by 13.37%. However, some markets in the region contracted, resulting in a total decrease in export revenue of approximately 48-50 billion baht.

Factors contributing to the appreciation of the Thai baht.

  1. The US dollar has weakened by an average of 13.8% due to the direction of the global economy.
  2. Global gold prices have surged by more than 70%.
  3. High levels of international reserves boost confidence in the currency.
  4. The flow of money from gold trading has been very high recently.

For 2026, Thai exports still have the potential to grow by around 5%, despite facing pressure from the currency. However, a strong baht helps reduce import costs for energy, raw materials, and consumer goods, thereby supporting production costs on the other hand.

Source of information: Thansettakij (Economic Base)

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