Warning signs that the global oil market is approaching a crisis point: prices will surge and supply will tighten in the next 1-2 months.

Although current oil futures prices are below $100 per barrel, experts believe this level does not reflect the true market situation, as available oil supplies are continuously declining.

One of the key factors is transportation constraints on strategic routes. If major transport routes remain affected for more than 40 days, the impact on global oil supplies will become clearly visible and could lead to shortages.

Tight supply is impacting the supply chain.
Analysts estimate that if oil from the Middle East cannot fully enter the market, various countries will begin drawing oil from their reserves, which would rapidly deplete reserves and increase the risk of short-term shortages.

Furthermore, supply chains are showing signs of cracking, particularly in aviation fuel, one of the most vulnerable sectors to shortages.

The critical period may occur between May 9–30.
Analysts’ data indicates that between May 9 and 30, oil reserves in industrialized countries could fall to a “manageable low,” a point at which there is a high risk of a sudden price correction.

The recovery will take a long time.
Although the situation has eased, the global oil system still needs time to recover. It is estimated that:

• Port and logistics: Approximately 2 months.
• Resumption of shipping operations: Takes 2–3 weeks.
• Oil production: It may take up to 4 months to return to 99% of production capacity.

The supply has dropped by more than 1 billion barrels.
It is estimated that approximately 1 billion barrels of oil have already been removed from the market, and this number could increase to 1.5 billion barrels if the situation persists, reflecting an imbalance between the “market picture” and “reality.”

Structural impacts on the global economy.
This oil crisis has affected not only prices but has also accelerated actions in many countries:

• Adjust energy strategies.
• Increase investment in alternative energy.
• Looking for long-term supply stability.

Meanwhile, some countries with robust energy and industrial infrastructure may benefit structurally from this situation. The global oil market is entering a vulnerable period, with a high risk of shortages in May if supply constraints are not resolved, which could lead to rapid price adjustments and widespread impacts on the global economy.